The wait is over. Shohei Ohtani has decided where he will play for the next decade, and the Chicago Cubs were not the choice. The Los Angeles Dodgers, an organization Jed Hoyer would love to emulate, added to their star-studded roster by giving Ohtani a jaw-dropping 10-year, $700 million deal.
Cubs fans who might have gotten optimistic about Ohtani’s ending up on their team are likely a bit disappointed. Others might see the price tag and be fine with their team’s passing. Ultimately, all that matters is that Hoyer builds a winner. It’s early in the offseason, so there’s plenty of time for the Cubs to make the type of moves that help build a likely playoff contender for 2024.
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But until those moves start happening, it’s natural for fans to get impatient and a bit angsty. Let’s use this first big domino to reset the winter and answer four questions fans likely have.
Is Hoyer too risk averse?
Some wonder why the Cubs no longer shop at the very top of the free-agent market. By total guaranteed contract, in three winters of work, Hoyer has come away with a top-10 free agent just once: Dansby Swanson.
That’s 30 players with only one landing with the Cubs. But of those other 29, how many would be a clear upgrade to the 2024 roster? Forget their contracts and positions: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, Kevin Gausman, Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo and Masataka Yoshida would very likely significantly help the 2024 Cubs.
That’s not the debate Hoyer is having, though. In his mind, the question is always going to be whether it’s the right time to spend aggressively. These contracts aren’t for just one season, of course. So mapping out the future financials of the team and syncing up when he believes the group is best suited to win is all part of Hoyer’s calculus.
But how could one blame Cubs fans who want more? The one time they’ve seen their team win the World Series lines up with when their front office was at arguably its most aggressive at the top of free agency. Other things went right, too, but those big moves happened. The Jon Lester signing is often argued as one of the most impactful free-agent additions in Chicago sports history. Of course, the Jason Heyward contract and the subsequent belt-tightening that it eventually helped trigger might be one of the primary reasons Hoyer is so careful with his spending.
Nevertheless, now is a time when Hoyer should be spending. His team has financial flexibility and prospects on the horizon. The Cubs are coming off a season when they not only improved but also demonstrated obvious areas for improvement — and it’s time to capitalize. Until Hoyer attacks the top of the market and lands a big-time free agent, this question will remain.
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How important is it to get one of the top free agents?
Swanson received the sixth-largest financial guarantee last offseason. So let’s look at the top five in each year from 2012 and see how many times the team that signed one of those players at least reached the World Series during the length of the deal.
Top free agents to reach World Series
| PLAYER | CONTRACT | NEW TEAM |
|---|---|---|
9 yr/$214M | Detroit Tigers | |
7 yr/$210M | Washington Nationals | |
6 yr/$155M | Chicago Cubs | |
7 yr/$217M | Boston Red Sox | |
8 yr/$184M | Chicago Cubs | |
5 yr/$80M | Los Angeles Dodgers | |
5 yr/$110M | Boston Red Sox | |
13 yr/$330M | Philadelphia Phillies | |
6 yr/$140M | Washington Nationals | |
5 yr/$60M | Los Angeles Dodgers | |
5 yr/$118M | Philadelphia Phillies | |
5 yr/$115.5M | Philadelphia Phillies | |
4 yr/$65M | Atlanta Braves | |
10 yr/$325M | Texas Rangers | |
7 yr/$175M | Texas Rangers | |
5 yr/$185M | Texas Rangers |
The table above shows the 16 players over the past 11 offseasons who were signed to a top-five free-agent deal in their class and then eventually made a World Series with the signing team. Some of them weren’t positively affecting their team at the time, but forget about that for now. These teams shopped at the top of the market and soon reaped the benefits with at minimum a deep postseason run.
Outside of the Dodgers though, there just aren’t a lot of teams that are repeatedly shopping in that part of the free-agent market and then consistently winning. Of the 11 World Series winners during that span, five didn’t have a top-five free agent by total contract on their roster. Hoyer sees that and thus far has chosen to be a bit more picky when it comes to free agency.
Hoyer has shown he believes it’s not essential for a team to regularly act aggressively at the top of the market to win. That would be bolstered by looking at how often teams like the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals are in playoff contention but rarely, if ever, hand out one of the biggest contracts of a given offseason. Some would rightfully point out the Cubs are at another level financially than those teams. Yes, they can build through their system and smart trades, but that shouldn’t hold them back from ever spending big money. Hoyer would likely point out that last winter was an anomaly in some ways and he did what was needed to add Swanson, a contract that has a higher average annual value than the one Heyward signed and a larger total value than the Cubs gave Lester.
Ultimately, fans have their doubts about what Hoyer is willing to do in free agency. Wherever the Cubs ended up in the bidding for Ohtani, Hoyer doesn’t get credited for trying. He didn’t do what was needed to lure Ohtani. That’s all that will be remembered if Ohtani goes on to help the Dodgers dominate the National League for the foreseeable future.
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Andrew Friedman once said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” Until Hoyer lands that big fish, he is going to have a tough time shedding the risk-averse label. Whether he ends up with one of this winter’s top-five free agents remains to be seen, but it is a weaker class, and in the end, that might give Hoyer pause.
So how do the Cubs get a middle-of-the-order bat?
That’s been a lingering question since the 2021 sell-off. Many of the most consistent teams in baseball develop them or use prospect depth to trade for one. Of the 12 playoff teams from last season, the Texas Rangers and the Philadelphia Phillies were the only ones primarily built through free agency.
That is not an excuse to avoid big spending. The Cubs organization is valued at $4.1 billion, according to Forbes, with an ownership group that makes a lot more on top of that by owning a lot of the area around Wrigley Field. They should always be in the top five in payroll, though team owner Tom Ricketts has said he isn’t going to guarantee that.
Seiya Suzuki batted .313 with a .938 OPS after the All-Star break. (Kyodo via Associated Press)The options for who the big bat will be are a bit limited. Seiya Suzuki could emerge as that player with another step forward in his consistency. His final two months of the season were highly encouraging. Christopher Morel showed flashes of carrying the offense at times. But he must improve his pitch selection, learn to understand his strengths and attack pitches in his zone rather than chasing.
As far as the farm goes, Kevin Alcántara, Owen Caissie and Matt Shaw are probably the position players with that type of offensive upside. But not many would have thought Morel had that type of upside two years ago, so maybe other names will emerge. Pete Alonso’s name hasn’t been talked about as much as expected in trade rumors, but that could change now that the market looks to be picking up. Re-signing Cody Bellinger is still a possibility but it would require Scott Boras to not get what he’s seeking and have Bellinger’s free agency drag out into January and perhaps February.
Also, with the Toronto Blue Jays’ missing out on Ohtani and the San Francisco Giants still desperate to land a big name, the Cubs will have steep competition, and Hoyer isn’t going to get in a bidding war for Bellinger. Is there a surprise trade candidate? Can Hoyer hope he finds some upside additions like Rhys Hoskins and smaller moves that help the offense as a whole? If he does that, will he be willing to be aggressive next winter for someone like Alonso, Juan Soto or Alex Bregman?
This isn’t an easy situation to solve and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious path at the moment.
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What’s next?
Let’s be clear, Hoyer isn’t going to sit out this winter. Just because it didn’t land Ohtani doesn’t mean the team’s biggest offseason additions will be at the level of Daniel Descalso, Tony Barnette and a rehabbing Kendall Graveman. Hoyer will make numerous moves to upgrade this team.
Tyler Glasnow remains a target, but the Braves and Dodgers look like stiff competition. The latter team desperately needs pitching and might be even more aggressive after adding Ohtani.
As noted last week, Hoskins, Glasnow and Shoto Imanaga all make sense and remain targets. Cleveland, the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners remain teams to watch on the trade market, along with the New York Mets and Alonso. Matt Chapman fits the mold that Hoyer has sought in recent winters, and if Jordan Montgomery’s market doesn’t get out of hand, he looks attractive — especially without a qualifying offer.
Relievers have to be added. It’s fine if they are ones with upside, but some degree of certainty has to be added as well. Left-handed pop would be nice, if a little difficult to find. But Hoyer will make smaller moves that fit needs and might not excite fans. He has to start hitting on those — beyond the bullpen — with more regularity.
There is still so much work to be done. But it’s early, and outside of the two behemoths on the coasts — the New York Yankees and Dodgers — not many teams have added monster names to their rosters. The Ohtani signing should thaw the market, leading to a much busier stretch before the holidays.
Intelligent spending isn’t the type of slogan that excites fans and it certainly won’t win an offseason. But Hoyer has been adamant that’s not what he’s looking to do. It’s important to remember this offseason started with Ohtani as a long shot to join the Cubs. Nobody doubted they still had other ways to improve upon a solid if unsatisfactory 2023. There are many paths to success, and Hoyer still has a chance to find one. Whether Cubs fans will be appeased remains to be seen.
(Top photo: Gordon Donovan / NurPhoto / Associated Press)
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